{"id":128,"date":"2026-07-28T22:35:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T22:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/accumulator-calculator\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T22:35:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T22:35:36","slug":"accumulator-calculator","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/accumulator-calculator\/","title":{"rendered":"Accumulator calculator"},"content":{"rendered":"\t<div class=\"cbtool cbacc\" id=\"cbacc\">\n\t\t<div class=\"cbtool-head\">\n\t\t\t<h2>Accumulator calculator<\/h2>\n\t\t\t<p>Add your legs and see the combined price, what a stake returns, and how likely the\n\t\t\t\twhole thing is to land. Then look at the last figure, which is the one the\n\t\t\t\taccumulator promotions never show you.<\/p>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-grid\">\n\t\t\t<div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-legs\" id=\"cba-legs\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<label class=\"cbacc-f\"><span>Leg 1<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" inputmode=\"decimal\" class=\"cba-leg\" value=\"1.80\" autocomplete=\"off\"><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<label class=\"cbacc-f\"><span>Leg 2<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" inputmode=\"decimal\" class=\"cba-leg\" value=\"2.10\" autocomplete=\"off\"><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<label class=\"cbacc-f\"><span>Leg 3<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" inputmode=\"decimal\" class=\"cba-leg\" value=\"2.50\" autocomplete=\"off\"><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<label class=\"cbacc-f\"><span>Leg 4<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" inputmode=\"decimal\" class=\"cba-leg\" value=\"2.13\" autocomplete=\"off\"><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-controls\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<button type=\"button\" class=\"cbacc-btn\" id=\"cba-add\">Add a leg<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t\t<button type=\"button\" class=\"cbacc-btn cbacc-btn--quiet\" id=\"cba-remove\">Remove one<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-extra\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<label class=\"cbacc-f\"><span>Stake<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" inputmode=\"decimal\" id=\"cba-stake\" value=\"10\" autocomplete=\"off\"><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t\t<label class=\"cbacc-f\"><span>Margin per leg %<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"text\" inputmode=\"decimal\" id=\"cba-margin\" value=\"5\" autocomplete=\"off\"><\/label>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<output class=\"cbacc-out\" id=\"cba-out\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-row\"><span class=\"k\">Combined odds<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"cba-comb\">20.13<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-row\"><span class=\"k\">Returns<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"cba-ret\">201.29<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-row\"><span class=\"k\">Chance of landing<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"cba-prob\">4.97%<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-row cbacc-row--flag\"><span class=\"k\">Margin actually paid<\/span><span class=\"v neg\" id=\"cba-marg\">18.5%<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<p class=\"cbacc-read\" id=\"cba-read\">4 legs multiply out to\n\t\t\t\t\t20.13, so a stake of\n\t\t\t\t\t10.00 returns\n\t\t\t\t\t201.29 if every leg lands \u2014 which the prices say\n\t\t\t\t\thappens 4.97% of the time. At\n\t\t\t\t\t5.0% margin per leg you are paying\n\t\t\t\t\t18.5% in total.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<\/output>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-note-block\">\n\t\t\t<h3>Why the margin compounds<\/h3>\n\t\t\t<p>Each leg is already priced below its fair value \u2014 that shortfall is the bookmaker's\n\t\t\t\tmargin. Multiplying the legs together multiplies the shortfalls too, so an\n\t\t\t\taccumulator's total margin is <code>1 &minus; (1 &minus; m)<sup>n<\/sup><\/code>, not\n\t\t\t\t<code>m<\/code>. Four legs at 5% each cost over 18%; eight legs cost about 34%.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<ul>\n\t\t\t\t<li><strong>This is why accumulators are promoted so hard.<\/strong> They are the\n\t\t\t\t\thighest-margin product on the book, which is also why they carry the free bets\n\t\t\t\t\tand the \"acca insurance\".<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li><strong>The big return is doing the work on you, not for you.<\/strong> A large\n\t\t\t\t\tpotential payout attached to a small probability is the same trade a lottery\n\t\t\t\t\tticket offers.<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t<li><strong>Correlated legs break the arithmetic.<\/strong> If two selections depend on\n\t\t\t\t\tthe same event, the combined probability is not the product of the two \u2014 and\n\t\t\t\t\tbookmakers price related contingencies separately for exactly that reason.<\/li>\n\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cbacc-read-more\">\n\t\t\t<h3>Articles that use these numbers<\/h3>\n\t\t\t<ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/esports-betting-the-intersection-of-gaming-and\/\">Esports Betting: The Intersection of Gaming and Gambling<\/a><\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/2023\/03\/09\/sports-betting-tips-for-beginners\/\">Sports betting &#8211; tips for beginners<\/a><\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/2023\/03\/03\/this-is-what-a-serious-sports-betting-provider\/\">This is what a serious sports betting provider looks like!<\/a><\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li><a href=\"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/2023\/03\/10\/depositing-in-online-casinos-making-or-losing\/\">Depositing in online casinos &#8211; making or losing money<\/a><\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t<style>\n\t.cbtool{--cbt-pad:26px;background:var(--bg);border:1px solid var(--line);\n\t\tborder-radius:var(--radius);padding:var(--cbt-pad);margin:0 0 28px}\n\t.cbtool-head h2{margin:0 0 .35em}\n\t.cbtool-head p{color:var(--muted);margin:0 0 22px;max-width:66ch}\n\t.cbacc-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:26px;align-items:start}\n\t.cbacc-legs{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:14px}\n\t.cbacc-extra{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:14px;margin:16px 0 0;\n\t\tpadding:16px 0 0;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}\n\t.cbacc-f{display:block}\n\t.cbacc-f span{display:block;font-family:var(--font-mono);font-size:.64rem;font-weight:600;\n\t\tletter-spacing:.12em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--muted);margin:0 0 6px}\n\t.cbacc-f input{width:100%;padding:11px 12px;border:1px solid var(--line);\n\t\tborder-radius:var(--radius);background:var(--bg);color:var(--ink);\n\t\tfont-family:var(--font-mono);font-size:1.02rem;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}\n\t.cbacc-f input:focus{outline:2px solid var(--accent);outline-offset:1px;border-color:var(--accent)}\n\t.cbacc-controls{display:flex;gap:8px;margin:14px 0 0}\n\t.cbacc-btn{font-family:var(--font-body);font-size:.84rem;font-weight:600;padding:8px 14px;\n\t\tborder:1px solid var(--accent);border-radius:var(--radius);background:var(--accent);\n\t\tcolor:#fff;cursor:pointer}\n\t.cbacc-btn:hover{background:var(--accent-dark);border-color:var(--accent-dark)}\n\t.cbacc-btn--quiet{background:var(--bg);color:var(--ink);border-color:var(--line)}\n\t.cbacc-btn--quiet:hover{background:var(--bg-soft);color:var(--ink);border-color:var(--accent)}\n\t.cbacc-btn:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--accent);outline-offset:2px}\n\t.cbacc-out{display:block;background:var(--bg-soft);border:1px solid var(--line);\n\t\tborder-radius:var(--radius);padding:18px 20px}\n\t.cbacc-row{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:baseline;gap:14px;\n\t\tpadding:10px 0;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}\n\t.cbacc-row:first-child{border-top:0;padding-top:0}\n\t.cbacc-row--flag{margin-top:4px;border-top:2px solid var(--accent)}\n\t.cbacc-row .k{font-family:var(--font-mono);font-size:.66rem;font-weight:600;\n\t\tletter-spacing:.1em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--muted)}\n\t.cbacc-row .v{font-family:var(--font-mono);font-size:1.2rem;font-weight:600;\n\t\tfont-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;color:var(--ink)}\n\t.cbacc-row .v.neg{color:var(--accent)}\n\t.cbacc-read{margin:14px 0 0;padding:12px 0 0;border-top:1px solid var(--line);\n\t\tfont-size:.92rem;line-height:1.6;color:var(--muted)}\n\t.cbacc-note-block{margin:28px 0 0;padding:24px 0 0;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}\n\t.cbacc-note-block h3{margin:0 0 .5em}\n\t.cbacc-note-block p{color:var(--muted);max-width:70ch}\n\t.cbacc-note-block code{background:var(--bg-soft);padding:1px 5px;border-radius:3px}\n\t.cbacc-note-block ul{margin:0;padding:0 0 0 1.1rem;max-width:70ch}\n\t.cbacc-note-block li{margin:0 0 .5rem;color:var(--muted)}\n\t.cbacc-note-block li strong{color:var(--ink)}\n\t.cbacc-read-more{margin:26px 0 0;padding:22px 0 0;border-top:1px solid var(--line)}\n\t.cbacc-read-more h3{margin:0 0 .5em;font-size:1.1rem}\n\t.cbacc-read-more ul{margin:0;padding:0 0 0 1.1rem}\n\t.cbacc-read-more li{margin:0 0 .35rem}\n\t@media(max-width:780px){\n\t\t.cbtool{--cbt-pad:18px}\n\t\t.cbacc-grid{grid-template-columns:1fr;gap:18px}\n\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\n\t<script>\n\t(function(){\n\t\tvar root=document.getElementById('cbacc'); if(!root) return;\n\t\tvar wrap=document.getElementById('cba-legs'),\n\t\t\taddB=document.getElementById('cba-add'), remB=document.getElementById('cba-remove'),\n\t\t\tstake=document.getElementById('cba-stake'), marg=document.getElementById('cba-margin'),\n\t\t\tcombEl=document.getElementById('cba-comb'), retEl=document.getElementById('cba-ret'),\n\t\t\tprobEl=document.getElementById('cba-prob'), margEl=document.getElementById('cba-marg'),\n\t\t\tread=document.getElementById('cba-read'),\n\t\t\tMAX=8, MIN=2;\n\n\t\tfunction num(v){ v=parseFloat(String(v).replace(',','.')); return isFinite(v)?v:NaN; }\n\t\tfunction f2(v){ return v.toFixed(2); }\n\n\t\tfunction renumber(){\n\t\t\twrap.querySelectorAll('.cbacc-f > span').forEach(function(s,i){ s.textContent='Leg '+(i+1); });\n\t\t\tvar n=wrap.querySelectorAll('.cba-leg').length;\n\t\t\taddB.disabled=(n>=MAX); remB.disabled=(n<=MIN);\n\t\t}\n\t\tfunction addLeg(){\n\t\t\tvar n=wrap.querySelectorAll('.cba-leg').length;\n\t\t\tif(n>=MAX) return;\n\t\t\tvar l=document.createElement('label');\n\t\t\tl.className='cbacc-f';\n\t\t\tl.innerHTML='<span>Leg '+(n+1)+'<\/span>';\n\t\t\tvar inp=document.createElement('input');\n\t\t\tinp.type='text'; inp.inputMode='decimal'; inp.className='cba-leg';\n\t\t\tinp.value='2.00'; inp.autocomplete='off';\n\t\t\tinp.addEventListener('input',calc);\n\t\t\tl.appendChild(inp); wrap.appendChild(l);\n\t\t\trenumber(); calc();\n\t\t}\n\t\tfunction removeLeg(){\n\t\t\tvar all=wrap.querySelectorAll('.cbacc-f');\n\t\t\tif(all.length<=MIN) return;\n\t\t\twrap.removeChild(all[all.length-1]);\n\t\t\trenumber(); calc();\n\t\t}\n\n\t\tfunction calc(){\n\t\t\tvar comb=1, n=0, ok=true;\n\t\t\twrap.querySelectorAll('.cba-leg').forEach(function(el){\n\t\t\t\tvar d=num(el.value);\n\t\t\t\tif(!(d>1)){ ok=false; return; }\n\t\t\t\tcomb*=d; n++;\n\t\t\t});\n\t\t\tvar s=num(stake.value); if(!isFinite(s)||s<0) s=0;\n\t\t\tvar m=num(marg.value); if(!isFinite(m)||m<0) m=0; if(m>99.9) m=99.9;\n\n\t\t\tif(!ok||n===0){\n\t\t\t\tcombEl.textContent='\u2014'; retEl.textContent='\u2014'; probEl.textContent='\u2014'; margEl.textContent='\u2014';\n\t\t\t\tread.textContent='Every leg needs a decimal price above 1.00 \u2014 that is the only format that multiplies.';\n\t\t\t\treturn;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t\tvar ret=s*comb, prob=100\/comb, tot=(1-Math.pow(1-m\/100,n))*100;\n\t\t\tcombEl.textContent=f2(comb);\n\t\t\tretEl.textContent=f2(ret);\n\t\t\tprobEl.textContent=prob.toFixed(2)+'%';\n\t\t\tmargEl.textContent=tot.toFixed(1)+'%';\n\t\t\tread.textContent=n+' legs multiply out to '+f2(comb)+', so a stake of '+f2(s)+' returns '+\n\t\t\t\tf2(ret)+' if every leg lands \u2014 which the prices say happens '+prob.toFixed(2)+\n\t\t\t\t'% of the time. At '+m.toFixed(1)+'% margin per leg you are paying '+tot.toFixed(1)+'% in total.';\n\t\t}\n\n\t\twrap.querySelectorAll('.cba-leg').forEach(function(el){ el.addEventListener('input',calc); });\n\t\t[stake,marg].forEach(function(el){ el.addEventListener('input',calc); });\n\t\taddB.addEventListener('click',addLeg);\n\t\tremB.addEventListener('click',removeLeg);\n\t\trenumber(); calc();\n\t})();\n\t<\/script>\n\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-128","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/128\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/movilzone.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}